Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations

This paper examines optimal monetary policy under heterogeneous expectations. To this end, we develop a stochastic New Keynesian model with a cost-push shock and coexistence of one-step-ahead rational and adaptive expectations in decentralized markets. On the one side, heterogeneous expectations imply an amplification mechanism that has many adverse consequences missing under the rational expectations paradigm. On the other side, even discretionary optimal monetary policy can manipulate expectations via a novel channel. We argue that the incorporation of heterogeneous expectations in both the design and implementation of discretionary optimal monetary policy to exploit this channel lowers macroeconomic volatility. We find that: (1.) a more hawkish policy can reduce losses due to volatility, but an overly hawkish policy does not; (2.) overestimating the share of rational expectations in the design and implementation of policy creates additional losses, while the underestimation does not; (3.) credible commitment eliminates or mitigates many of the ramifications of heterogeneous expectations.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Heterogeneous expectations, optimal monetary policy and the merit of policy inertia

WOS:000342832000008 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science)The design and analysis of optimal monetary policy is usually guided by the paradigm of homogeneous rational expectations. Instead, we examine the dynamic consequences of design and implementation strategies, when the actual economy features expectational heterogeneity. Agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. Consequently, the central bank's ability to achieve price stability under heterogeneous expectations depends on its objective and implementation strategy. An expectations-based reaction function, which appropriately conditions on private sector expectations, performs exceptionally well. However, once the objective introduces policy inertia, popular strategies have similar determinacy properties, but they are less operational. This finding calls for new implementation strategies under interest rate stabilization

Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?

Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the monetarist solution is unique and stationary under a passive fiscal/active monetary policy regime if monetary policy appropriately incorporates expectational heterogeneity. In contrast, the active fiscal/passive monetary policy regime's fiscalist solution is prone to explosiveness due to empirically plausible expectational heterogeneity. Nevertheless, this can be a well-defined, rather orthodox equilibrium. For operational monetary policy rules, only the results for the fiscalist solution prevail. Moreover, our results are plausible from an adaptive learning viewpoint.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation

WOS:000331503600007 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science)We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labor supply, which makes agents' decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behavior that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of fiscal reform

Automation, stagnation, and the implications of a robot tax

We assess the long-run growth effects of automation in the overlapping generations framework. Although automation implies constant returns to capital and, thus, an AK production side of the economy, positive long-run growth does not emerge. The reason is that automation suppresses wage income, which is the only source of investment in the overlapping generations model. Our result stands in sharp contrast to the representative agent setting with automation, where sustained long-run growth is possible even without technological progress. Our analysis therefore provides a cautionary tale that the underlying modeling structure of saving/investment decisions matters for the derived economic impact of automation. In addition, we show that a robot tax has the potential to raise per capita output and welfare at the steady state. However, it cannot induce a takeoff toward positive long-run growth.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Infrastructure for the life sciences: design and implementation of the UniProt website

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The UniProt consortium was formed in 2002 by groups from the Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB), the European Bioinformatics Institute (EBI) and the Protein Information Resource (PIR) at Georgetown University, and soon afterwards the website <url>http://www.uniprot.org</url> was set up as a central entry point to UniProt resources. Requests to this address were redirected to one of the three organisations' websites. While these sites shared a set of static pages with general information about UniProt, their pages for searching and viewing data were different. To provide users with a consistent view and to cut the cost of maintaining three separate sites, the consortium decided to develop a common website for UniProt. Following several years of intense development and a year of public beta testing, the <url>http://www.uniprot.org</url> domain was switched to the newly developed site described in this paper in July 2008.</p> <p>Description</p> <p>The UniProt consortium is the main provider of protein sequence and annotation data for much of the life sciences community. The <url>http://www.uniprot.org</url> website is the primary access point to this data and to documentation and basic tools for the data. These tools include full text and field-based text search, similarity search, multiple sequence alignment, batch retrieval and database identifier mapping. This paper discusses the design and implementation of the new website, which was released in July 2008, and shows how it improves data access for users with different levels of experience, as well as to machines for programmatic access.</p> <p><url>http://www.uniprot.org/</url> is open for both academic and commercial use. The site was built with open source tools and libraries. Feedback is very welcome and should be sent to <email>[email protected]</email>.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The new UniProt website makes accessing and understanding UniProt easier than ever. The two main lessons learned are that getting the basics right for such a data provider website has huge benefits, but is not trivial and easy to underestimate, and that there is no substitute for using empirical data throughout the development process to decide on what is and what is not working for your users.</p

Investigation of chlorine radical chemistry in the Eyjafjallajkull volcanic plume using observed depletions in non-methane hydrocarbons

As part of the effort to understand volcanic plume composition and chemistry during the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajkull, the CARIBIC atmospheric observatory was deployed for three special science flights aboard a Lufthansa passenger aircraft. Measurements made during these flights included the collection of whole air samples, which were analyzed for non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). Hydrocarbon concentrations in plume samples were found to be reduced to levels below background, with relative depletions characteristic of reaction with chlorine radicals (Cl). Recent observations of halogen oxides in volcanic plumes provide evidence for halogen radical chemistry, but quantitative data for free halogen radical concentrations in volcanic plumes were absent. Here we present the first observation-based calculations of Cl radical concentrations in volcanic plumes, estimated from observed NMHC depletions. Inferred Cl concentrations were between 1.3 × 10 and 6.6 × 10 Cl cm. The relationship between NMHC variability and local lifetimes was used to investigate the ratio between OH and Cl within the plume, with [OH]/[Cl] estimated to be ∼37. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union

An Examination of Public Opinion in Austria Towards Inclusion. Development of the “Attidutes Towards Inclusion Scale”- ATIS

The ‘Attitudes Towards Integration Scale’ (ATIS) assesses the attitude of the general public towards the school integration of children with disabilities. The scale was empirically created in a pilot study (n=351) and later used to survey 2158 people. The data from both surveys are analysed in the present paper; the results show that the scale exhibits acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach’s α=.83) and that the factorial structure of the scale can be considered as largely confirmed. Overall, the surveyed persons reported a positive attitude towards the school integration of children with disabilities. However, the form of the disability of the integrated child and the level of education as well as the participants’ familiarity with the topic of integration of persons with disabilities, age and gender played a role in their assessment. In addition, the results show that pupils in general have a more negative attitude than students and employed persons. Sequence effects could also be shown. Inclusive education is seen as more positive when respondents are first asked to evaluate how a child with a disability gets on in an integrated class and have to evaluate later how a child with the same disability gets on in a special school setting of an integrated class

Protein Encapsulation Using Complex Coacervates: What Nature Has to Teach Us

Protein encapsulation is a growing area of interest, particularly in the fields of food science and medicine. The sequestration of protein cargoes is achieved using a variety of methods, each with benefits and drawbacks. One of the most significant challenges associated with protein encapsulation is achieving high loading while maintaining protein viability. This difficulty is exacerbated because many encapsulant systems require the use of organic solvents. By contrast, nature has optimized strategies to compartmentalize and protect proteins inside the cell—a purely aqueous environment. Although the mechanisms whereby aspects of the cytosol is able to stabilize proteins are unknown, the crowded nature of many newly discovered, liquid phase separated “membraneless organelles” that achieve protein compartmentalization suggests that the material environment surrounding the protein may be critical in determining stability. Here, encapsulation strategies based on liquid–liquid phase separation, and complex coacervation in particular, which has many of the key features of the cytoplasm as a material, are reviewed. The literature on protein encapsulation via coacervation is also reviewed and the parameters relevant to creating protein‐containing coacervate formulations are discussed. Additionally, potential opportunities associated with the creation of tailored materials to better facilitate protein encapsulation and stabilization are highlighted

Assessment of B Cell Repertoire in Humans

The B cell receptor (BCR) repertoire is highly diverse. Repertoire diversity is achieved centrally by somatic recombination of immunoglobulin (Ig) genes and peripherally by somatic hypermutation and Ig heavy chain class-switching. Throughout these processes, there is selection for functional gene rearrangements, selection against gene combinations resulting in self-reactive BCRs, and selection for BCRs with high affinity for exogenous antigens after challenge. Hence, investigation of BCR repertoires from different groups of B cells can provide information on stages of B cell development and shed light on the etiology of B cell pathologies. In most instances, the third complementarity determining region of the Ig heavy chain (CDR-H3) contributes the majority of amino acids to the antibody/antigen binding interface. Although CDR-H3 spectratype analysis provides information on the overall diversity of BCR repertoires, this fairly simple technique analyzes the relative quantities of CDR-H3 regions of each size, within a range of approximately 10–80 bp, without sequence detail and thus is limited in scope. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) techniques on the Roche 454 GS FLX Titanium system, however, can generate a wide coverage of Ig sequences to provide more qualitative data such as V, D, and J usage as well as detailed CDR3 sequence information. Here we present protocols in detail for CDR-H3 spectratype analysis and HTS of human BCR repertoires